3 Market Risks to Watch for in the Months Ahead

By the end of August, the S&P 500 index had posted seven straight monthly increases and had touched a new record high over 50 times – the most in seven months since 1964.1 The U.S. economy has also been in recovery and expansion mode, with corporate earnings and revenues powering higher alongside a rallying market. […]

Will There Be Market Correction in September?

It’s September, which means the news articles covering the “September Effect” should be cropping up more frequently on financial news sites and in reader inboxes. Prepare your mental defenses. The main takeaway of the “September Effect” articles is almost always the same – investors should prepare for heightened volatility and weak returns, and perhaps even […]

3 Factors to Consider When Considering Inflation Hedges

Inflation has been a front-and-center topic in recent months, mostly because it’s been moving higher. Consumer prices (CPI) rose 5.4% in July 2021 from July 2020, which marked the highest 12-month jump since 2008. There was one silver lining in the CPI fine print, however – inflation rose at a 0.5% pace from June to […]

2021 Surprises: Earnings Higher, Rates Lower Than Expected

At the beginning of 2021, there was broad consensus U.S. corporations would post a strong earnings’ rebound, and many believed interest rates would move higher alongside economic growth and rising inflation. Market participants set expectations for both outcomes. Checking in a little more than halfway through the year, I think we can make two observations: […]

Economic Growth is Peaking…What Happens Next?

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 6.5% in the second quarter. Many areas of the economy are still in recovery mode, but for all intents and purposes, the U.S. economy is back to its pre-pandemic size – and we see plenty of runway for growth […]

Will Record-Setting Investment in U.S. Markets Trigger Volatility?

In the first half of 2021, investors across the globe poured over $900 billion into U.S.-based mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). It was a record-setting start for fund flows in the first six months, and the U.S. was by far the biggest beneficiary. In a world still beset by the pandemic and uneven responses […]

3 Key Factors for Investors in the Second Half of 2021

In many ways, the first half of 2021 has played out as largely expected. Here’s a quick list of forecasts made at the beginning of the year that I think are largely running their course: Rising vaccination rates were expected to give way to loosened and eventually removed economic restrictions; The economy was expected to […]

When Does Rising Government Debt Become a Problem?

Not long ago, the notion of spending trillions of dollars on an economic plan or a government budget would have raised many eyebrows. Today, it seems like spending trillions is just part of the daily discourse – not only for the U.S. government, but also for governments abroad. In the wake of the pandemic, global […]

Do High Valuations Signal a Bear Market Ahead?

The 2000 tech bubble may be responsible for a myth in stock market investing. Here’s the myth: high valuations (P/E ratios) give way to long and steep bear markets. It seems like a logical idea and takeaway, but history doesn’t support it. When the market crashed in 2000, many dot coms were trading at outrageous […]

U.S. Consumer Fuels Global Demand and Creates Global Risks

Following the 2008 – 2009 Global Financial Crisis, U.S. consumers were in bad shape. Housing prices were depressed, many workers were out of a job, and household wealth declined sharply. For many years after the crisis, Americans paid down debts and worked to get their financial houses in order.1 Fast forward to the 2020 pandemic-induced […]