Concerns are growing about the strength of the U.S. economy and the longevity of the bull market. Many readers may notice that “recession” seems to be the hottest trending topic in the news these days, with any bit of negative data being seized upon as a potential canary in the coal mine. I’ve even written […]
U.S. and global equity markets have been in a sustained volatile patch since early summer, and a look at the S&P 500 over the last year demonstrates how the ups and downs have netted flat returns. Whether you want to blame the trade war, slowing corporate earnings growth, weakening China and European economic fundamentals, the […]
Most reporting I’ve seen on the risk of economic recession and market volatility continues to focus on U.S.-China trade relations, which I would agree is a big deal. But here’s what I also believe: Investors should assume that known risks are already reflected in stock prices. If we really want to identify a trigger for […]
For several weeks now, readers have been inundated with news stories about the escalating trade war, the inverted yield curve signaling recession, ongoing geopolitical unrest (Iran, Hong Kong), and volatile stock markets. These stories all warrant watching and clearly point in the direction of a global economic slowdown. But it’s not all doom-and-gloom in the […]
The equity market continues its volatile streak, which as I wrote last week, I expected to be the case. Volatility and market corrections tend to come in spurts (often scary and sudden ones), and a few days and weeks can start to feel like a lifetime, in my opinion. I know navigating the ups and […]
The S&P 500 suffered its biggest decline of 2019 on Monday (August 5), declining -3.3% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell -3.8%.1 When the market takes a sudden and sharp turn, investors often get rattled and start questioning their asset allocation. Getting worried and second-guessing is a normal, natural, and understandable response. But if you’re feeling […]
Earnings season is in full swing, which gives investors an opportunity to ditch the news cycle for a moment to focus on revenues, cash flows, and profits. Or, as I would argue, the factors that matter most to equity investors long-term. This week I want to focus on technology stocks. We’ve seen several IPOs in […]
Low interest rates coupled with a flat yield curve usually mean bank profits will come under pressure. Generally speaking, the flatter the yield curve, the lower a bank’s net interest margins – which is the difference between what a bank earns on loans versus what it pays out in interest on deposits. J.P. Morgan saw […]
What a difference six months can make. In December of 2018, the Federal Reserve made a slight adjustment to its rate forecast for 2019 – it was planning to raise rates only two times in 2019 instead of three. The language in the December 2018 Fed statement still called for “gradual” rate hikes, however, and […]
Government bond yields across the globe are in serious decline – and have been for some time now. Investors are paying closer attention to yields these days, however, because in many developed countries like Japan, Germany, France, and the Netherlands 10-year bond yields have actually turned negative.[1] The chart below shows the methodical, steady decline […]
