All 50 states have now moved to ease Covid-19 restrictions, and signs of revived activity are returning to the U.S. and global economy. Initial jobless claims peaked in March, truckloads are starting to fill back up, air travel and hotel bookings are inching higher, mortgage applications are rising, and people are applying to open new […]
In the early days of the Covid-19 lockdowns, many held out hope that the temporary pause to economic activity would give way to a robust recovery in the second half of the year. It was common to hear talk of a “v-shaped” recovery. As the weeks drag on and negative economic data continues to flood […]
Many readers have probably seen the headlines and stories claiming this recession could be as bad – or worse – than the Great Depression. To that I say, don’t take the bait. The Great Depression was a slow, long, grinding downturn for the U.S. economy. From 1929 to 1933, the economy shrank for 43 consecutive […]
By April 18th, a record 12.4% of the US workforce was receiving unemployment benefits, with over 30 million submitting jobless claims. Estimates suggest that in the coming weeks, the unemployment rate could approach 20%, which would bring the economy closer to levels seen during the Great Depression. U.S. factory activity in April, as measured by […]
During World War II, the US economy adapted into what was termed an “Arsenal of Democracy,” mobilizing industry to turn car factories into assembly lines for Liberator bombers and shipyards into production facilities for Liberty freight ships. The US economy – and all of the great innovators and leaders within it – evolved to meet […]
During the S&P 500’s -34% plunge followed by its sharp “v-shaped” rally, it became apparent to me that almost every sector of the US economy had varying levels of exposure to this crisis. We have never seen an induced recession in the name of public health like we’re seeing now, with government-mandated shutdowns and social […]
The Covid-19 global pandemic is wreaking havoc on many (but not all) parts of the U.S. economy. It remains to be seen how quickly the economy can ramp back up once the virus is contained and restrictions are lifted. For investors, I think it’s important not to wait for positive news as a signal that […]
Many readers may not recall this detail specifically, but when the financial crisis first took hold in the fall of 2007, the Federal Reserve and Congress’s initial response was to do very little and nothing, respectively. The Fed made modest rate cuts in late 2007 and into 2008, but the full force of quantitative easing […]
Generally speaking, there are three types of bear markets: structural, cyclical, and event-driven. Every bear market has a unique set of drivers, of course, but throughout history most of them fall into one of these three categories: Structural – These are bear markets like the 2008-2009 downturn, which are driven by financial bubbles, too much […]
We are entering the phase of a bear market where pessimism starts to evolve into extreme doubt, where investors watch the stock market sell-off, as the Federal Reserve announces massive liquidity measures, and think, “Maybe this is it. Maybe the Fed can’t save us this time.”1 This is the phase of a bear market where […]
