When Does Rising Government Debt Become a Problem?

Not long ago, the notion of spending trillions of dollars on an economic plan or a government budget would have raised many eyebrows. Today, it seems like spending trillions is just part of the daily discourse – not only for the U.S. government, but also for governments abroad. In the wake of the pandemic, global […]

Do High Valuations Signal a Bear Market Ahead?

The 2000 tech bubble may be responsible for a myth in stock market investing. Here’s the myth: high valuations (P/E ratios) give way to long and steep bear markets. It seems like a logical idea and takeaway, but history doesn’t support it. When the market crashed in 2000, many dot coms were trading at outrageous […]

U.S. Consumer Fuels Global Demand and Creates Global Risks

Following the 2008 – 2009 Global Financial Crisis, U.S. consumers were in bad shape. Housing prices were depressed, many workers were out of a job, and household wealth declined sharply. For many years after the crisis, Americans paid down debts and worked to get their financial houses in order.1 Fast forward to the 2020 pandemic-induced […]

How Has Brexit Impacted the U.K. Economy?

Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU) in the famed Brexit vote on June 23, 2016. That means it’s been just over five years since voters decided to end 47 years of U.K. membership in the EU. This was a huge decision, with far-reaching economic and investment implications that are still being processed.1 Our […]

Should You Invest in the Energy Sector?

We’re about halfway through 2021, and many readers may be surprised to learn that Energy is the top S&P 500 sector performer year-to-date. The Energy sector has registered a greater than +30% return for the year (as I write), which is more than double the gains of the broader S&P 500 index.1 Is Energy’s performance […]

Should Investors Worry About U.S. Dollar Value?

There is a hearty amount of excitement surrounding the U.S. economic recovery and life after the pandemic. The U.S. jobs market is piping hot, restrictions are falling away across the country, and U.S. households are armed with savings. Perhaps most importantly, corporate earnings nicely exceeded expectations in Q1, which clients know is a key fundamental […]

A One-of-a-Kind Economic Recovery

The current economic recovery – which can now be deemed an economic expansion, in my view – has no historical precedent. All economic recoveries and expansions look different, of course. But we have never seen such a deep economic collapse followed immediately by a boom of this magnitude. It’s a first-of-its-kind event. Take the economic […]

Corporate Earnings Should be the Key Investor Focus

The U.S. economy is growing, vaccination rates are slowing but remain elevated, and restrictions are falling away quickly. Pandemic risks are falling, and corporations are posting very strong earnings numbers.1 Yet, even still, we keep hearing about inflation concerns, labor market shortages, supply chain bottlenecks, too much government spending, and frothy asset classes. Don’t get […]

Should You Fear the Fed Tapering?

A high percentage of financial commentary these days tends to focus on inflation worries, Fed tightening, and government spending. Most of the commentary is negative. One of the worries I read about quite a bit are concerns surrounding Fed “tapering,” which is the term used to describe a reduction in bond purchases (QE). Many see […]

The American Consumer is the Key to This Recovery

The U.S. labor market had a weak April. Many economists were caught off guard – the consensus was for the economy to produce 1 million new jobs, and instead, we saw a seasonally adjusted 266,000. To make matters more tenuous, U.S. consumer prices jumped 0.9% from March to April, marking the biggest monthly inflation increase […]