What Will Cause the Next Market Crisis?

The next big market crisis will be caused by…. The short answer, unfortunately, is that no one can say for sure. But, we do have insight and a strong opinion about what will not cause the next crisis: toxic subprime loans and over-leveraged banks, whose downfall ultimately brought global financial system to its knees in […]

The Yield Curve’s Message to Investors

The yield curve is one of the most coveted of economic indicators, and for good reason – in my view, it can provide investors with useful insights about how the economy, stocks, and bonds could perform going forward. And at the end of the day, that’s precisely what we want to know. Most of the […]

How Midterm Elections Affect Stocks

Stocks are generally not influenced by a single factor. It is usually a multitude of factors pushing and pulling prices at any given time. Earnings may serve as tailwinds breathing positive momentum into stocks, while tariffs could do the opposite and serve as headwinds. Leading economic indicators may boost investor sentiment and the relative attractiveness […]

What These Market Meltdowns Can Teach You About Strategy!

Not to be too alarming, but we strongly believe that a bear market is headed our way. We do not think it will happen in the next six or even twelve months, and no one can say for sure when it will occur or what will actually cause it. In my opinion, the only thing […]

Could This Be the Catalyst for the Next Recession?

It may feel strange reading this, but it’s been nearly a decade since the United States has endured a recession.(1) Economic growth rates have notably been modest throughout this expansion, and corporate earnings endured a whole year (2015) of negative growth.(2) But overall, millions of jobs were added, personal wealth has risen, the economy has […]

What’s Better: Growth or Value Stocks?

Watchful investors may have noticed a trend that has taken shape over the last year and a half or so, as it relates to growth vs. value stocks. Namely, that growth stocks have been stoutly outperforming value stocks since the beginning of last year: Growth Stocks (Red Line) Have Recently Outperformed Value Stocks (Blue Line) […]

What You Can Learn from the Brexit

On June 23, 2016, voters in the United Kingdom took the bold step of opting to leave the European Union. Yet here we are, over two years later, and there is still no deal for how ‘Brexit’ will actually occur – in fact, the two sides aren’t even close.1 The drama reached new heights this […]

The Problem with GDP Calculations

For the better part of a century, economists have been wrangling over the most effective and accurate way to measure the U.S. economy’s size and growth. Spoiler alert: they haven’t found it yet.1 To be fair, the task before them is monumental – measuring an economy as diverse, massive, and ever-changing as the U.S. economy […]

Could the “Amazon Effect” Change the Investment Landscape?

You may have heard the phrase “Retail Apocalypse” recently, in reference to the wave of store closures and bankruptcies hitting the U.S. retail sector. The names on this hitlist are familiar ones: Macy’s shuttering 100 stores and laying off 5,000 workers1; Abercrombie and Fitch shuttering 40 stores in 2017; American Apparel filing for bankruptcy and […]

Will Turmoil in Europe Hurt the Market?

One could argue that the phrase “political turmoil in Europe” has been applicable in nearly every year of the last decade. For many countries in the region, it has been a constant struggle for unity and political stability in the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis, culminating in Brexit and the populist wave currently engulfing […]