Do You Know What Recession Indicator is on the Rise?

The signs are everywhere – inflation is on the move. The economy has been humming on the heels of the tax cut, labor markets are tight, and the consumer remains optimistic. I think these factors, combined with pricing pressures from wages and tariffs, are all contributing to the firming inflation we’ve been seeing – and […]

3 Factors that Could Shape the Markets in Q4

Q4 has gotten off to a rocky start. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that the downside volatility actually started on October 3, when the S&P 500 traded near its all-time high for the last time in October. As the month draws to a close, the S&P 500 is teetering on the […]

Is the Fed Really “Going Crazy?”

Recent remarks by President Trump make one thing clear: he is not a fan of higher interest rates. In an impromptu press conference after walking off Air Force One on October 10th, the president remarked that the “Fed has gone crazy,” adding that he believed it was a mistake to tighten monetary policy, i.e., to […]

Look for Risks that No One is Talking About

When the U.S. and global equity markets took a steep dive in the week of October 8, the headlines were a chorus of replayed fears: Interest rates are moving higher too fast! The Fed is in danger of making a major policy error! Technology valuations are too high! Global trade is in trouble! We’ve heard […]

How to React to Recent Volatility

The S&P 500 and global markets took a steep drop significantly this week, declining -3.26% and -2.41% (ACWX), respectively on Wednesday alone. Stocks were led down by the technology giants, with the Nasdaq falling an even further -4.08%.[1] Many clients and readers are concerned, understandably, but I want to put those concerns to rest. The […]

3 Risks to Rising Stock Prices

The S&P 500 notched a stout +7.2% gain in the third quarter, in spite of bubbling trade disputes, rising interest rates, and concerns about currency and debt in the Emerging Markets. Q3 marked the S&P 500’s best quarterly performance in nearly five years (Q4 2013).[1] In my view, the bullish outlook for stocks – and […]

Is There a Tipping Point to This Trade War?

The trade dispute between the U.S. and China grew last week, as the Trump administration enacted 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliated immediately with 10% tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods. For those keeping score out there, the U.S. has now levied tariffs on over $250 billion worth of […]

What You Can Learn from the Financial Crisis 10 Years Later

10 years ago last week, on September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. At the time, few investors, analysts, or investment professionals fully understood the extent of damage the Lehman event would ultimately cause. The S&P 500 fell by -28% in just 22 days, and the index ended up losing more than half its […]

What Will Cause the Next Market Crisis?

The next big market crisis will be caused by…. The short answer, unfortunately, is that no one can say for sure. But, we do have insight and a strong opinion about what will not cause the next crisis: toxic subprime loans and over-leveraged banks, whose downfall ultimately brought global financial system to its knees in […]

The Yield Curve’s Message to Investors

The yield curve is one of the most coveted of economic indicators, and for good reason – in my view, it can provide investors with useful insights about how the economy, stocks, and bonds could perform going forward. And at the end of the day, that’s precisely what we want to know. Most of the […]