I have been hearing a common refrain in the financial news and from readers: the financial markets are not accurately pricing the grim realities of the economic situation in the U.S. and abroad; stocks are too expensive; the election is going to throw markets into disarray; tech is overvalued! The list goes on. Many see […]
As we draw closer to the U.S. presidential election, I’ve had an increasing number of readers concerned about trouble ahead. Some are concerned about a Trump re-election, others worry about a Biden win and a “blue wave,” and still others fear a contested election will send the economy back into recession. In my view, while […]
Few things about 2020 have felt normal, and the November election is not likely to offer much relief. But as we have learned time and again throughout history – and in particular this year – stocks love to climb a wall of worry. Even though U.S. stocks posted their weakest September in almost 10 years, […]
When 2020 started, my biggest concerns were an escalating trade war with China and geopolitical tensions with Iran. No one could have anticipated that by October, some 25 million Americans would be collecting unemployment benefits1 while the nation remains locked in an 8-month battle with a global pandemic. Now, we’re one month away from what […]
The stock market has been experiencing heightened volatility of late, which is normal for a host of reasons. Volatility is a regularly occurring feature of equity investing, but it is also common in the early days of a new bull market and in the months leading up to a U.S. presidential election. I encourage investors […]
The stock market’s sustained rally since the March 23 lows had many investors feeling good about the recovery. The stock market climbed back to new highs as the pandemic’s threat to economic growth moderated, and investors started looking ahead to next year when corporate earnings might recover in earnest. Then the volatility arrived. Two weeks […]
The first week of September rattled equity investors. The Nasdaq dropped over -6% in two days leading into Labor Day, and at one point had fallen -10% from its high in intra-day trading. In a single day, Apple Inc. shed $179.92 billion off its market cap, marking the biggest one-day loss for a U.S.-listed company […]
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made some significant announcements at the Federal Reserve last week, but the news didn’t gain much traction in the financial media. For one, most people do not find “Fed-speak” that invigorating, or even interesting. But secondly, Powell’s pronouncements did not have any immediate impact or implications, as he was setting […]
In the second quarter, S&P 500 corporate earnings were down over -30% on approximately -10% lower revenues.1 Daily confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the United States continue at a pace in-line with early days of the outbreak, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July unemployment report showed 16+ million unemployed Americans with an unemployment rate […]
Q2 earnings season came and went with very little fanfare. Of course, most financial and other news coverage seemed to be focused solely on the Covid-19 outbreak, unemployment data, politics-as-usual, and fiscal and monetary stimulus. From what I could gather, earnings were barely mentioned at all. But they should have been. Long-time readers of my […]
