Why Bold Market Predictions Rarely Pan Out

22 years ago, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett published a book titled, Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market. In the book, the two authors claimed the Dow Jones Industrial Average should hit 36,000 almost “immediately,” even though at the time the Dow was trading just above […]

Is a Stronger Dollar Bad for the Market?

The U.S. dollar has been strengthening considerably over the last few months, with the WSJ Dollar Index hitting its highest point since September 2020. There are a few factors arguably driving the dollar higher – the U.S. economy is strong relative to the rest of the world, and the Federal Reserve is about to engage […]

Too Much Demand is the Key U.S. Economic Issue

In a typical recession, households lose employment, disposable income levels fall or plateau, consumer spending declines, credit markets tighten up, and banks issue fewer loans. The result is that demand falls across the economy, with less money going towards goods and services. We see the opposite happening today. In the U.S., the unemployment rate is […]

Will Higher Energy Prices Stall the Economy?

 Across the board, energy prices are on the rise. Crude oil prices have risen over 60% in 2021 alone, and are hovering around a seven-year high. Natural gas prices have nearly doubled in the last six months, and are currently at levels not seen since the blizzards in 2014 pummeled the Northeast. The national average […]

3 Economic Risks for the Coming Year

The stock market endured a choppy September. The S&P 500 slid for the month, nearly wiping out all of Q3’s gains. Many analysts cited the debt ceiling drama and/or economic issues emerging from China as causes for the volatility, but I generally refrain from assigning causes to short-term volatility. The market may be responding to […]

Is the U.S. Economy Set to Rebound from Summer Lull?

Macroeconomic headwinds started to build throughout the summer, which was also when the surge of the highly contagious Delta variant started to take a toll. Many businesses reluctantly delayed office re-openings and in some parts of the country, indoor capacity restrictions were reinstated. The travel and hospitality industry largely reported that bookings hit a soft […]

How the Debt Ceiling Showdown Could Affect Investors

The debt ceiling debate is once again flooding the national airwaves, as the U.S. rapidly approaches what is known as the “X Date” – or the date when the U.S. Treasury would run out of cash needed to pay bills. The Treasury owes interest payments on existing debt, but the department also needs cash to […]

A Big Issue With Small-Cap Index ETFs

Small-cap stocks have been on a solid run in 2021. In particular, small-cap value stocks have delivered strong performance relative to small-cap growth stocks, perhaps as investors have shifted preferences in favor of companies with steady earnings and relatively modest valuation multiples. Investing in small-cap stocks can be challenging – the universe of available companies’ […]

3 Lessons for Investors from the Past Year

As we fast approach the end of 2021, I’ve been taking time to reflect on some of the lessons I’ve learned over the past year. In 20 months or so, the world has undergone a slew of rapid-fire changes, and it has resulted in significant – and I would argue, lasting – shifts in the […]

3 Market Risks to Watch for in the Months Ahead

By the end of August, the S&P 500 index had posted seven straight monthly increases and had touched a new record high over 50 times – the most in seven months since 1964.1 The U.S. economy has also been in recovery and expansion mode, with corporate earnings and revenues powering higher alongside a rallying market. […]