What a Rate Cut Could Mean for the Market

What a difference six months can make. In December of 2018, the Federal Reserve made a slight adjustment to its rate forecast for 2019 – it was planning to raise rates only two times in 2019 instead of three. The language in the December 2018 Fed statement still called for “gradual” rate hikes, however, and […]

Global Bond Yields are Bottoming Out

Government bond yields across the globe are in serious decline – and have been for some time now. Investors are paying closer attention to yields these days, however, because in many developed countries like Japan, Germany, France, and the Netherlands 10-year bond yields have actually turned negative.[1] The chart below shows the methodical, steady decline […]

Fireworks, Tariffs and the Trade War with China

When most Americans think about the 4th of July, we think of family time, barbeques, hot dogs, red white and blue, fun in the sun, and maybe a few cold beers too. But perhaps the most iconic modern-day American tradition surrounding the 4th of July is, of course, fireworks. Though it may be difficult to […]

3 Things that May Move the Market this Year

We’re now halfway through 2019, and the stock market has delivered solid performance year-to-date. It’s difficult to believe that the S&P 500 is up nearly +20% in the first six months, but investors must remember that the market’s stout performance is coming off a miserable Q4 2018 where the S&P 500 flirted with bear market […]

What the Recent Oil Price Drop Means

With recent headlines focused squarely on the U.S. – China trade dispute and the possibility of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, few have noticed that crude oil prices have been in steep decline since last fall. Prior to last October, crude oil prices had been locked into an uptrend since the beginning […]

Economic data suggests slowing growth, possible recession

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the U.S. economy has been growing for over ten years – putting it on the level with the longest expansion period in U.S. history, from March 1991 to March 2001. By the NBER’s measure, just one more month of growth would make this the longest expansion […]

5 Key Themes for Your Summer Portfolio Review

For many families and investors across America, the summer months are a time for vacations, having the kids and grandkids out of school, and less stress at work (hopefully). For the markets, the summer months tend to follow a somewhat similar path with historically low volumes – though volatility generally likes to stick around. This […]

Bullish or Bearish? Here is My View

On the surface, it looks like the bull market is hitting resistance on multiple fronts. Just when many market participants thought a trade deal with China was in the offing, talks broke down and tariffs went up – the exact opposite of a ‘market friendly outcome,’ in my view. Now, as corporations grapple with a […]

Are Investors Abandoning Small-cap Stocks?

The stock market has not responded well to indications that the U.S.–China trade dispute is falling off course. I’ve written many times that Fed policy, corporate earnings, and the China trade deal would be three key drivers of market returns in 2019, and it follows that bad news on any of those three fronts is […]

Is Inflation No Longer a Threat to the U.S. Economy?

‘Inflation’ used to be a word that, when discussed in economic circles, often dealt in worrisome implications – fear of too much inflation or concern over not enough inflation (or at worst, deflation). Rarely have we seen inflation running at subdued, acceptable levels for long stretches of time, as we have arguably seen in the […]