Look for Risks that No One is Talking About

When the U.S. and global equity markets took a steep dive in the week of October 8, the headlines were a chorus of replayed fears: Interest rates are moving higher too fast! The Fed is in danger of making a major policy error! Technology valuations are too high! Global trade is in trouble! We’ve heard […]

How to React to Recent Volatility

The S&P 500 and global markets took a steep drop significantly this week, declining -3.26% and -2.41% (ACWX), respectively on Wednesday alone. Stocks were led down by the technology giants, with the Nasdaq falling an even further -4.08%.[1] Many clients and readers are concerned, understandably, but I want to put those concerns to rest. The […]

3 Risks to Rising Stock Prices

The S&P 500 notched a stout +7.2% gain in the third quarter, in spite of bubbling trade disputes, rising interest rates, and concerns about currency and debt in the Emerging Markets. Q3 marked the S&P 500’s best quarterly performance in nearly five years (Q4 2013).[1] In my view, the bullish outlook for stocks – and […]

Is There a Tipping Point to This Trade War?

The trade dispute between the U.S. and China grew last week, as the Trump administration enacted 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliated immediately with 10% tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods. For those keeping score out there, the U.S. has now levied tariffs on over $250 billion worth of […]

What You Can Learn from the Financial Crisis 10 Years Later

10 years ago last week, on September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. At the time, few investors, analysts, or investment professionals fully understood the extent of damage the Lehman event would ultimately cause. The S&P 500 fell by -28% in just 22 days, and the index ended up losing more than half its […]

What Will Cause the Next Market Crisis?

The next big market crisis will be caused by…. The short answer, unfortunately, is that no one can say for sure. But, we do have insight and a strong opinion about what will not cause the next crisis: toxic subprime loans and over-leveraged banks, whose downfall ultimately brought global financial system to its knees in […]

The Yield Curve’s Message to Investors

The yield curve is one of the most coveted of economic indicators, and for good reason – in my view, it can provide investors with useful insights about how the economy, stocks, and bonds could perform going forward. And at the end of the day, that’s precisely what we want to know. Most of the […]

How Midterm Elections Affect Stocks

Stocks are generally not influenced by a single factor. It is usually a multitude of factors pushing and pulling prices at any given time. Earnings may serve as tailwinds breathing positive momentum into stocks, while tariffs could do the opposite and serve as headwinds. Leading economic indicators may boost investor sentiment and the relative attractiveness […]

What These Market Meltdowns Can Teach You About Strategy!

Not to be too alarming, but we strongly believe that a bear market is headed our way. We do not think it will happen in the next six or even twelve months, and no one can say for sure when it will occur or what will actually cause it. In my opinion, the only thing […]

Could This Be the Catalyst for the Next Recession?

It may feel strange reading this, but it’s been nearly a decade since the United States has endured a recession.(1) Economic growth rates have notably been modest throughout this expansion, and corporate earnings endured a whole year (2015) of negative growth.(2) But overall, millions of jobs were added, personal wealth has risen, the economy has […]