How Long Will it Take for the Economy to Recover?

Since 1982, it has taken an average of almost four years for the U.S. economy to fully recover job losses and to establish new records of output. After the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis, it took even longer – six years. How long will this economic recovery take? A brief look at history is warranted here. […]

The Post-Election Outlook for Stocks

The election that consumed the American public (and the world) – and also fueled the largest voter turnout in American history – is now over. I won’t get into the weeds on the possible legal challenges to the outcome, and whether they are likely to be successful or not. I’ll focus instead on what’s next […]

Consistent Investing Wins, No Matter Who’s in the White House

The 2020 U.S. presidential election has been a slog for just about everyone, no matter what your political orientation. Unfortunately, the tension is likely far from over – the outcome may not be determined for days, weeks or even months. Legal challenges are likely. My advice to readers this week is to push back against […]

The U.S. Consumer Helps to Keep the Economy Afloat

Weekly credit and debit card spending at major U.S. retailers – Target, Walmart, Amazon, Best Buy, and Kohls – has been tracking higher since the beginning of the year. Steady spending comes in spite of record job losses and a pandemic that remains a public health and economic risk. Challenging times abound, but U.S. consumers […]

4 Market Myths That Can Lead to Costly Mistakes

I have been hearing a common refrain in the financial news and from readers: the financial markets are not accurately pricing the grim realities of the economic situation in the U.S. and abroad; stocks are too expensive; the election is going to throw markets into disarray; tech is overvalued! The list goes on. Many see […]

Are We Headed for Another Recession?

As we draw closer to the U.S. presidential election, I’ve had an increasing number of readers concerned about trouble ahead. Some are concerned about a Trump re-election, others worry about a Biden win and a “blue wave,” and still others fear a contested election will send the economy back into recession. In my view, while […]

Zacks Q3 Review and Forecast for Q4 and Beyond

Few things about 2020 have felt normal, and the November election is not likely to offer much relief. But as we have learned time and again throughout history – and in particular this year – stocks love to climb a wall of worry. Even though U.S. stocks posted their weakest September in almost 10 years, […]

How Will the 2020 Election Impact the Markets?

When 2020 started, my biggest concerns were an escalating trade war with China and geopolitical tensions with Iran. No one could have anticipated that by October, some 25 million Americans would be collecting unemployment benefits1 while the nation remains locked in an 8-month battle with a global pandemic. Now, we’re one month away from what […]

What Can Real Bond Yields Tell You About the Stock Market?

The stock market has been experiencing heightened volatility of late, which is normal for a host of reasons. Volatility is a regularly occurring feature of equity investing, but it is also common in the early days of a new bull market and in the months leading up to a U.S. presidential election. I encourage investors […]

Volatility is Back, and So Is the Temptation to Time Markets

The stock market’s sustained rally since the March 23 lows had many investors feeling good about the recovery. The stock market climbed back to new highs as the pandemic’s threat to economic growth moderated, and investors started looking ahead to next year when corporate earnings might recover in earnest. Then the volatility arrived. Two weeks […]