In the mid-1800’s, the Industrial Revolution landed in America, transforming the nature of work for nearly every American. Workers largely left their farms and homes to take their place on the factory floor, eventually moving onto assembly lines. In the decades that followed, American workers would leave the factories and move into office buildings, as […]
The U.S. budget deficit – which is the difference between what the government spends and earns (tax receipts) in a given year – soared to $3 trillion in the twelve months ending June 30, 2020. Spending rose dramatically in recent months in response to the pandemic, while tax revenue plummeted. In the month of June […]
The epicenter of the economic crisis has largely been in services, severely bruising industries like retail, hospitality, travel, food services, and airlines. As these areas of the economy struggle to survive, many technology companies have been thriving. The economy has been steadily evolving into ‘digital everything,’ and companies that build and/or service the digital infrastructure […]
In recent columns, I have written extensively about the seeming ‘disconnect’ between the economic recovery (weak) and the stock market (strong). I won’t rehash those arguments here, but the overarching takeaway is that the stock market almost always moves well in advance of an economic and earnings recovery. If an economic recovery is expected to […]
When 2020 started, two of my biggest event-driven, macro concerns were rising geopolitical tensions with Iran and the potential for a messy run-up to the presidential election. Then the pandemic happened. The ground underneath the global economy shifted astronomically, quickly, and in ways few could have anticipated. Within 30 days, the stock market had declined […]
Many readers have probably seen this stat-line before: U.S. consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of total GDP.1 With U.S. GDP crossing $20 trillion in 2019, that means the consumer doled out approximately $13 trillion last year. As a category, that makes the U.S. consumer nearly as big as the entire Chinese economy (~$14 trillion) […]
The stock market’s recent moves have a lot of people confused. On one level, it’s easy to understand the -34% plunge from February highs – the stock market was pricing-in the steep, pandemic-driven global economic downturn that engulfed the world during the spring months. But since March 23, which was still early days for the […]
Bonds have a long history of being vital sources of capital preservation and income in investment portfolios, particularly for retirees. But that reputation is fading. Yields on high-quality corporate bonds and risk-free U.S. Treasuries have been marching lower for the better part of 40 years, to the point where they no longer provide the level […]
When investors think about traditionally ‘defensive’ sectors, what usually comes to mind are Utilities, Defense (military spending), Healthcare, and/or Consumer Staples. These are the areas of the economy where demand remains pretty steady all the time, even during challenging periods like recessions. Demand for goods and services in these sectors is inelastic – people always […]
All 50 states have now moved to ease Covid-19 restrictions, and signs of revived activity are returning to the U.S. and global economy. Initial jobless claims peaked in March, truckloads are starting to fill back up, air travel and hotel bookings are inching higher, mortgage applications are rising, and people are applying to open new […]
