Investors are getting increasingly edgy and bearish as stock market volatility continues apace, which is actually having the opposite effect on me – it’s making me more bullish. In this week’s column I’ll explain why I feel that way, but first I’ll unpack some of the sentiment indicators ‘flashing pessimism.’ You can find evidence of […]
The S&P 500 has officially crossed over into correction territory[1], which is generally defined as a decline of -10% to -20% over a reasonably short period of time (few weeks to a few months). As I wrote last week, little has changed fundamentally over the past two weeks with regard to interest rate expectations, earnings […]
Volatility persists in the global stock market, but the media narratives haven’t changed much – it’s still, “fears of global slowdown, rising interest rates, flattening yield curve, and trade war with China” being most commonly cited as drivers of the selling pressure. These factors are driving uncertainty, but I’m still not convinced they are powerful […]
It’s been a “nowhere to hide” situation for investors over the last several weeks. If we look at the performance of 70 different types of asset classes from gold to bonds to oil to stocks, about 90% of them are down for the year through mid-November (negative total return in dollar terms). The last time […]
Technology stocks have felt a bigger impact from the recent downside volatility than the broad market (S&P 500). In the last three months through Wednesday (11/21), the S&P had declined -3.21% while the Nasdaq had fallen nearly twice that, at -6.9%.[1] These relative declines have investors worried that tech stocks are too overvalued, and that […]
It comes as a great relief to many – including the markets – that the midterm elections are almost over. I say ‘almost over’ because there are still key races in states like Florida and Georgia being contested, and there are still a few House races yet to be called. Whatever happens with those races […]
The signs are everywhere – inflation is on the move. The economy has been humming on the heels of the tax cut, labor markets are tight, and the consumer remains optimistic. I think these factors, combined with pricing pressures from wages and tariffs, are all contributing to the firming inflation we’ve been seeing – and […]
Recent remarks by President Trump make one thing clear: he is not a fan of higher interest rates. In an impromptu press conference after walking off Air Force One on October 10th, the president remarked that the “Fed has gone crazy,” adding that he believed it was a mistake to tighten monetary policy, i.e., to […]
When the U.S. and global equity markets took a steep dive in the week of October 8, the headlines were a chorus of replayed fears: Interest rates are moving higher too fast! The Fed is in danger of making a major policy error! Technology valuations are too high! Global trade is in trouble! We’ve heard […]
