Does Market Euphoria Signal a Correction Coming?

Over the Thanksgiving holiday, I’d be willing to venture that many dinner conversations included ‘investing in vaccine stocks,’ or perhaps some chatter about Tesla’s meteoric rise and inclusion into the S&P 500. Others may have discussed the flashy Airbnb and DoorDash initial public offerings (IPOs) that just took place, with some of the younger folks […]

Are We Backsliding Into a Double-Dip Recession?

Readers are probably tired of hearing about the pandemic’s effect on economic output. I get it. But with the pandemic worsening in the U.S., and with full vaccine rollout probably six months away, we’re entering a critical phase in the economic recovery. The first quarter of the new year will be a major litmus test, […]

The Dow Crosses 30,000…Are Stocks Overvalued?

News stories about the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow 30) hitting 30,000 are cropping up. I’ve also seen reports that the Dow’s +12% rise in November was the index’s best month since January 1987. Most of the columns I’m reading also suggest stocks are running too hot, or that we can expect resistance at […]

3 Market Factors to Watch as We Close Out 2020

Many readers are ready for 2020 to be over. That’s understandable. In a year beset by losses for many families and businesses, and characterized by uncertainties of all stripes, it was a challenging twelve months to say the very least. I encourage readers to think of the new year as a fresh start, and a […]

How Long Will it Take for the Economy to Recover?

Since 1982, it has taken an average of almost four years for the U.S. economy to fully recover job losses and to establish new records of output. After the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis, it took even longer – six years. How long will this economic recovery take? A brief look at history is warranted here. […]

The Post-Election Outlook for Stocks

The election that consumed the American public (and the world) – and also fueled the largest voter turnout in American history – is now over. I won’t get into the weeds on the possible legal challenges to the outcome, and whether they are likely to be successful or not. I’ll focus instead on what’s next […]

Consistent Investing Wins, No Matter Who’s in the White House

The 2020 U.S. presidential election has been a slog for just about everyone, no matter what your political orientation. Unfortunately, the tension is likely far from over – the outcome may not be determined for days, weeks or even months. Legal challenges are likely. My advice to readers this week is to push back against […]

The U.S. Consumer Helps to Keep the Economy Afloat

Weekly credit and debit card spending at major U.S. retailers – Target, Walmart, Amazon, Best Buy, and Kohls – has been tracking higher since the beginning of the year. Steady spending comes in spite of record job losses and a pandemic that remains a public health and economic risk. Challenging times abound, but U.S. consumers […]

4 Market Myths That Can Lead to Costly Mistakes

I have been hearing a common refrain in the financial news and from readers: the financial markets are not accurately pricing the grim realities of the economic situation in the U.S. and abroad; stocks are too expensive; the election is going to throw markets into disarray; tech is overvalued! The list goes on. Many see […]

Are We Headed for Another Recession?

As we draw closer to the U.S. presidential election, I’ve had an increasing number of readers concerned about trouble ahead. Some are concerned about a Trump re-election, others worry about a Biden win and a “blue wave,” and still others fear a contested election will send the economy back into recession. In my view, while […]