Institutional Investors

Could 2018 be the year that inflation matters again? I think the answer is likely yes. One of the more puzzling features of 2017 was that the acceleration in global growth did not create a more substantial pickup in inflation in the second half of the year. From May through November, the consumer price index […]

2017 was a year of solid double digit returns and subdued volatility for the S&P 500. For most investors, it was a welcomed outcome for the year and may bring some fresh optimism for 2018. But the combination of high returns and low volatility is also a tad bit unusual. Just take a look at […]

The FANG stocks – consisting of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google – have been the talk of Wall Street for as long as anyone can remember in this bull market. Chalk it up to industry dominance, massive free cash flow, fast growth and surging stock prices. But is there also too much hype baked into […]

Hurricanes, superstorms, floods…in whatever form they come, they can be devastating events resulting in significant economic hardship for local communities. It is impossible to overstate the difficulty these communities are likely to endure as they work to rebuild their homes and resume living normal lives. Our thoughts go out to all of those affected. When […]

There are several reasons an investor may underperform over time: poor stock selection, suboptimal asset allocation decisions, mistimed trades, too much trading, switching managers too often, and so on. But often times when it boils down to it, an investors’ worst enemy – almost always – is him or herself. The field of behavioral finance […]

Making smart, informed investment decisions really involves a two-part process, in my view. The first part is looking at the macroeconomic environment – this tells you whether the global economy is generally expected to grow (i.e., whether stocks have a path higher). It means looking at metrics like GDP, inflation, interest rates, velocity of money, […]

Q2 earnings season is now in full swing, and there is arguably quite a bit riding on this quarter and this year’s earnings season, given the rather muted data seen in 2016 of +0.8% earnings growth on +2.1% higher revenues. The Energy sector was still largely to blame for last year’s fairly dismal aggregate earnings […]

The Financials sector has displayed some interesting characteristics over the last nine months or so. In the weeks following the election of Donald Trump, Financials had the best run of any sector in the S&P 500. From November 8, 2016, to the end of the year, the sector surged +16.8%, with Telecom coming in at […]

The chart below makes it clear – on a relative basis, that we are in a period of very low volatility. The chart below also makes it clear that low volatility is not necessarily unusual. It happens in cycles, and it is not necessarily unusual to see a period of low volatility and strong positive […]