Market headlines move quickly, but what deserves your attention? In this week’s Steady Investor, we explore the forces shaping markets and what they could mean for your investment strategy, including:
Higher Gas Prices Have Not Stopped Consumers From Spending – Gasoline prices have risen sharply this year, renewing concerns that higher costs at the pump could force U.S. households to cut spending elsewhere. So far, the data suggests consumers are absorbing the increase better than many expected. September retail and food-service sales rose 0.8% from August and 6.3% from a year earlier, reaching $745 billion. To be fair, gasoline accounted for much of September’s headline increase, but spending outside the category continued to grow. The retail “control group,” which excludes gasoline, autos, building materials and restaurants and feeds into GDP calculations, also increased for the seventh time in eight months. Restaurant and bar sales rose 1.1% in September and 7.0% year over year, while furniture sales increased 1.3% for the month and online retailers gained 0.3%. Broader consumption data tells a similar story. Real personal consumption expenditures, which adjust for inflation and cover far more of household spending than retail sales alone, increased 0.6% in August. That resilience has come despite regular gasoline reaching roughly $4.48 per gallon in late September, more than $1.30 above its earlier level. Consumers appear to be adjusting where they spend rather than broadly shutting their wallets, which is a meaningful distinction for an economy still driven primarily by household demand.1
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China’s Economy Grows, but Domestic Weakness Persists – China’s economy accelerated modestly in the third quarter, but beneath the headline growth rate, the country remains increasingly dependent on exports while domestic demand struggles. Gross domestic product expanded 4.5% from a year earlier in Q3, up from 4.3% in the second quarter. But, despite China’s efforts to boost domestic consumption, trade has been a major source of strength. Exports surged 36.3% year over year in September, accelerating from 25% in August and far exceeding economists’ expectations. China’s trade surplus reached $133.5 billion for the month and $938.1 billion through September, putting the country on pace to surpass last year’s record. The domestic economy looks much weaker. Retail sales increased just 1.1% year over year in September, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% during the first nine months of 2026. Private investment declined 10.4%, and real-estate development investment dropped 20.6%. For investors, China’s 4.5% growth rate therefore tells only part of the story. Advanced manufacturing and global demand are helping offset weak property, investment and household spending, but an ever-larger trade surplus also risks increasing friction with major trading partners.3
Persian Gulf Oil Flows Surpass Prewar Levels – Despite continued attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, more oil is now leaving the Persian Gulf than before the Iran war—a striking example of how quickly global energy markets can adapt to disruption. Middle East oil flows averaged more than 24 million barrels per day during the week ending October 18, exceeding the roughly 23.3 million barrels per day moving before the war. Shipments through Hormuz itself, including offshore transfers in the Gulf of Oman, have recovered to roughly 14 million barrels per day, or 82% of prewar levels. To be fair, however, the recovery has required substantial changes. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are moving more crude through pipelines that bypass Hormuz, while tankers increasingly make shorter trips through the strait before transferring cargo to other vessels outside the highest-risk area. Resilience comes at a price—freight costs for a supertanker carrying Gulf crude to China have approached $37 per barrel, while war-risk insurance has risen to as much as 10% of a ship’s value, versus less than 3% previously. That helps explain why Brent crude remains around $108 per barrel even though physical supply has recovered substantially.4
Put Your Retirement Plan into Perspective – How will your investments support you through retirement? A clear plan starts with understanding how your long-term strategy, income needs, and tax considerations fit together.
Our free guide, Retirement Made Easy², walks you through important questions to help you prepare for your financial future, including:
Whether retirement is years away or just around the corner, explore practical considerations to help you move forward with a clearer plan.
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