Steady Investor Weekly

Markets continue to evolve as investors assess the latest economic developments. This week’s Steady Investor takes a closer look at what’s shaping the outlook, including:

• The Fed holds rates steady
• U.S. manufacturing jobs rise
• AI drives bank lending growth

The Fed Holds Rates Steady, But Another Hike is Expected in 2026 – As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its October meeting, following a quarter-point hike last month. The benchmark fed funds rate now sits at 3.75%–4.00%. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh acknowledged that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a strong pace, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust capital investment, and a relatively stable labor market. The issue is that a strong economy is being accompanied by stubborn inflation, which has been stuck above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years. The energy effect remains the biggest driver of higher prices in 2026, but signs are emerging that these higher costs are starting to trickle through to other parts of the economy. As of this writing, the pressures on other areas like transportation costs, consumer goods, services, and housing remain fairly modest. But the strong nominal growth combined with sticky price pressures have markets pricing-in another rate hike in December, which we also expect to see.¹

^{How to Safeguard Your Retirement from Inflation’s Impact}

The Fed’s latest decision is a reminder that inflation remains part of the economic picture. But for retirement savers, the bigger question is how rising costs could affect your purchasing power over the years ahead.

Whether you’re approaching retirement or already there, reviewing your investment mix, spending, and income sources can help you prepare.

Our free guide, 4 Ways to Protect Your Retirement from Rising Inflation², explores:

• How to build or modify your asset allocation to outperform inflation
• The importance of analyzing your spending by category
• Strategies to maximize Social Security retirement benefits
• Plus, more practical ideas to fight back against inflation

Claim your complimentary guide to explore ways to help your retirement savings go further. Download 4 Ways to Protect Your Retirement from Inflation².

U.S. Manufacturing Jobs are Coming Back, But They’re Not Like the Old Ones – After years of declining employment, U.S. manufacturing is beginning to add jobs again.³

All Employees, Manufacturing

The newly hired positions look considerably different from traditional factory work. Manufacturers have added approximately 72,000 workers since December of last year, with hiring increasingly concentrated in technology-intensive industries such as aerospace, semiconductors, and electrical equipment. The longer-term shift is even more striking. Between 2015 and 2025, U.S. manufacturers eliminated 244,000 production jobs, including assembly and machine-operation roles, while adding 358,000 positions in management, business, and financial operations. For readers looking for a clean explanation of how this is happening, the answer is one word: automation. Modern factories increasingly rely on robotics, sensors, and sophisticated software, creating demand for engineers, data specialists, and technicians who can operate and maintain complex equipment. In our view, this trend carries important implications for the U.S. economy. More technologically advanced manufacturing can support higher wages, increased productivity, and stronger business investment. But it also presents a challenge, which is that the American workforce must develop the technical skills needed to fill these positions. Without sufficient investment in education and training, shortages of qualified workers could constrain growth even as manufacturers expand their domestic operations.

Bank Lending in the U.S. Looks Strong, But There’s a Caveat – In the third quarter, commercial and industrial loans at the nation’s 25 largest banks grew nearly 10% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than a decade outside the pandemic.⁵

Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks

But there’s a caveat—much of the lending is flowing to one ‘theme’ in the economy. You guessed it, artificial intelligence. The upshot, however, is that the AI theme has beneficiaries across different sectors. Large banks are helping finance data centers and technology infrastructure, while regional lenders are extending credit to the construction companies, manufacturers, and equipment suppliers supporting the build-out. The acceleration is notable given higher interest rates and years of commercial lending shifting toward nonbank competitors (private credit). We should stop short of calling this a lending boom, however. Banks are also becoming more cautious, with executives expressing concerns about concentrated exposure to AI projects, complex financing arrangements, and the possibility that some planned investments may never materialize.

Is Inflation Putting Pressure on Your Retirement Plan? A strong economy doesn’t eliminate the challenges inflation can create for retirement savers. As the Fed weighs its next move, consider what you can do to account for inflation in your own retirement plan.

Download your complimentary copy of 4 Ways to Protect Your Retirement from Inflation² to explore practical strategies for your investment mix, spending, and retirement income, such as:

• How to build or modify your asset allocation to outperform inflation
• The importance of analyzing your spending by category
• Strategies to maximize Social Security retirement benefits
• Plus, more practical ideas to fight back against inflation

Claim your complimentary guide to explore ways to help your retirement savings go further.

Disclosure